Prof. Dr. Bandholz - Publications
Selected Publications
1. Books and Monographs
Konjunkturelle Frühindikatoren für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland und die Freie und Hansestadt Hamburg: Eine empirische Analyse unter Verwendung linearer und nichtlinearer dynamischer Faktormodelle, Volkswirtschaftliche Analysen 12, Lang: Frankfurt am Main (Dissertation), 2004.
Gesamtwirtschaftliche Folgen von Vermögensblasen im internationalen Vergleich, ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung 23, Munich, 2006 (with O. Hülsewig, G. Illing and T. Wollmershäuser).
2. Journal Articles (refereed and non-refereed)
Wirtschaftspolitik sollte von kurzfristigen Maßnahmen zur Inflationsbekämpfung absehen, discussion article on the topic „Inflation auf Rekordniveau– wie kann die Politik die Folgen abfedern?”, ifo Schnelldienst, 75(7), 9-13, 2022.
Did He Make America Great Again?, discussion article on the topic „Die USA vor dem Wahlkampf: Die Spuren Donald Trumps in Wirtschaft und Politik.”, ifo Schnelldienst, 73(1), 6-9, 2020.
Can Trade Wars be Won?, Current Economics, 3-9, April 2018.
Why the US should not use its leverage against Mexico, Current Economics, 3-9, February 2017.
Die Entwicklung der Langfristzinsen in den USA und das Quantitative Easing der FED (with Joerg Clostermann and Franz Seitz), Bavarian Journal of Applied Sciences, 2, 198-2011, 2017.
Unsicherheit ist Trump(f), discussion article on the topic „America After the Elections: What Does Donald Trump’s Victory Mean for the USA and Europe?”, ifo Schnelldienst, 69(23), 3-6, 2016.
US-Staatsanleihen: Unter den Blinden ist der Einäugige König (US Treasuries: Among the blind, the one eyed is king), discussion article on the topic „US debt crisis: Is the US facing a loss of confidence?“, ifo Schnelldienst, 64(17), 3-7, 2011.
Explaining the US Bond Yield Conundrum (with Joerg Clostermann and Franz Seitz), Applied Financial Economics,19, 539-550, 2009.
Globale Spielregeln – nationale Aufsichten (Global rules – national oversight; with Roger M. Kubarych), discussion article on the topic „Global financial market architecture: Do we need world financial supervision?“, ifo Schnelldienst, 61(42), 6-10, 2008.
Wachstum und Konjunktur in OECD-Ländern: Eine langfristige Perspektive (with Gebhard Flaig and Johannes Mayr), ifo Schnelldienst, 58(4), 28-36, 2005.
Die Konstruktion und Schätzung eines Konjunkturfrühindikators für Hamburg (with Michael Funke), Wirtschaftsdienst, 83(8), 540-548, 2003.
In Search of Leading Indicators of Economic Activity in Germany (with Michael Funke), Journal of Forecasting, 22(4), 277-297, 2003.
Ökonometrische Schätzung eines Frühindikators der Konjunkturentwicklung (with Michael Funke), Wirtschaftsdienst, 82(12), 757-760, 2002.
3. Working Papers
New Composite Leading Indicators for Hungary and Poland, Ifo Working Paper Nr. 3, 2005.
In Search of Leading Indicators of Economic Activity in Germany (with Michael Funke), CESifo Working Paper No. 571, 2001.
4. "Economist's Corner" in German American Trade
The German American Trade is the magazine of the German American Chambers of Commerce (GACC) and published quarterly. The average circulation print is 2,000 copies with approximately 8-10 readers per copy. Additionally, the online edition is available on all GACC websites and in the monthly newsletter. From 2013 till 2019 I wrote a regular column, "Economist's Corner", for the magazine.
Who Really Benefits From Auto Tariffs?, German American Trade 31(2), 2019.
Choppy Waters Ahead?, German American Trade 30(1), 2019.
Don't Get Fooled By The Headlines, German American Trade 29(3), 2019.
Trade Wars Cannot be Won, German American Trade 29(2), 2018.
Will Small Businesses Walk the Talk?, German American Trade 29(1), 2018.
One Perspective on Corporate Tax Cuts, German American Trade 28(4), 2017.
Are You Ready For a 3% Unemployment Rate, German American Trade 28(3), 2017.
Don't Use Your Leverage Against Mexico, German American Trade 28(2), 2017.
A Fiscal Stimulus at Full Employment, German American Trade 28(1), 2017.
The Rise of the Machines, German American Trade 27(4), 2016.
Why the Fed Really Worries about the Global Economy and the Dollar, German American Trade 27(3), 2016.
Sluggish Investment is relly just a Commodity Story, German American Trade 27(1), 2016.
A Slowdown "Made in China"?, German American Trade 26(4), 2015.
The Supply Side is the Limit, German American Trade 26(3), 2015.
The Fed Will Begin to Hike Rates This Year, German American Trade 26(2), 2015.
What if Republicans Win the Senate?, German American Trade 25(5), 2014.
Watch Out for Rising Wage Pressure!, German American Trade 25(3), 2014.
Yellen's Main Challenge, German American Trade 25(2), 2014.
Fiscal Policy Must Do More, German American Trade 25(1), 2014.
Partisanship has Shown its Ugly Face, German American Trade 24(6), 2013.
Consumers Ready to Take on More Debt, German American Trade 24(5), 2013.
Where is the Inflation?, German American Trade 24(4), 2013.
More Fiscal Progress than you Think, German American Trade 24(3), 2013.
5. Research contributions
2005 – 2019 (UniCredit Research):
Contributions to various publications of UniCredit’s Global Research unit - from data comments to in-depth research papers. Most articles deal with the US economy and highlight market moving topics such as the financial market crisis, monetary or fiscal policy, the housing recession, the labor market, inflation, or international capital flows. Here is a selection:
US: Is the Wealth Effect dead?, August 2018.
Can Trade Wars be won?, April 2018.
US Small Businesses: Sentiment vs. Activity, February 2018.
Why the Fed will not switch to Price-Level Targeting, January 2018.
No, Virginia, the US is not a 3% Growth Economy, December 2017.
Corporate Tax Cuts will benefit Shareholders, not Economic Growth, September 2017.
Demystifying the Decline in US Core Inflation, July 2017.
The US Unemployment Rate will hit a five-decade Low before long, June 2017.
The US Debt Ceiling will be raised, but it should be axed!, March 2017.
Why the US should not use its Leverage against Mexico, February 2017.
America’s Problem is not High Imports but Low Exports, January 2017.
Less Bang for the Buck: A Fiscal Stimulus at Full Employment, November 2016.
This needs to be the next President’s No. 1 Priority, September 2016.
The Rise of the Machines: Economic and Social Consequences of Robotization, August 2016.
Fed’s Political Cycle: Do Presidential Elections affect Monetary Policy? (with E. Campanella), June 2016.
Why the Fed really worries about the Global Economy and the Dollar, May 2016.
US Fiscal Policy at a Crossroads – Consolidation through the Fiscal Cliff?, October 2012.
Reach out for the Medal(s) – Medal Projections for the 2012 Olympic Games in London (with A. Rees), July 2012.
How the Great Recession changed the Fed – Evidence from a Forecast-Based Reaction Function, April 2012.
US Infrastructure Program cannot be Large enough!, January 2011.
From The “Greenspan Put” to the “Powerlessness” of the Central Bank? (with T. Greetfeld), August 2010.
US Financial Markets Dependent on Petrodollars, July 2008.
Wildfires in Southern California – Economic Impact of a Natural Disaster, October 2007.
Petrodollars – Where do they Flow?, March 2007.
US Treasuries: Via the Caribbean and London to China!, December 2005.
July 2004 to April 2005 (business cycle forecasts of the Ifo Institute):
Joint Economic Forecast of six German economic research institutes (Gemeinschaftsdiagnose)
"The State of the World Economy and the German Economy, Spring 2005".
"The State of the World Economy and the German Economy, Fall 2004".
Euro-zone Economic Outlook: A joint short-term forecasts of GDP, consumption, industrial production and inflation in the euro zone, Ifo Institute, INSEE (Paris) and ISAE (Rome).
Ifo Economic Forecast December 2004 "Decoupled from World Economic Activity" (contributions on the US and the Japanese Economy).